Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1713 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1713 DFW 07:05 → CVG 10:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 799 DFW 20:07 → CVG 23:22 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1713 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	CVG 10:25	11%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 1710 American Flight history →	DFW 09:45	CVG 13:05	19%	5%	0.8%	84%
F9 4280 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:01	CVG 18:22	29%	10%	0.8%	78%
AA 1728 American Flight history →	DFW 15:50	CVG 19:09	29%	8%	0.8%	39%
AA 799 American Flight history →	DFW 20:07	CVG 23:22	30%	8%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON