Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3495 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3495 DFW 07:11 → DSM 09:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1762 DFW 16:35 → DSM 18:33 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3495 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:11	DSM 09:11	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 2421 American Flight history →	DFW 14:08	DSM 16:00	29%	10%	0.8%	49%
AA 1371 American Flight history →	DFW 22:05	DSM 23:59	33%	11%	0.9%	54%
AA 1762 American Flight history →	DFW 16:35	DSM 18:33	34%	12%	1.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON