Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2183 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2183 DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1786 DFW 15:17 → DTW 18:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2183 Delta Flight history →	DFW 05:20	DTW 09:04	5%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:19	DTW 15:02	13%	3%	0.6%	80%
AA 1792 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	DTW 10:52	14%	4%	0.7%	83%
F9 3178 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:00	DTW 10:54	16%	5%	0.8%	95%worse than usual
DL 735 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:24	DTW 17:10	17%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 1793 American Flight history →	DFW 11:15	DTW 14:56	23%	5%	0.8%	64%
F9 3990 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:29	DTW 18:15	25%	8%	0.8%	76%
DL 1441 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:35	DTW 22:20	27%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 690 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	DTW 23:40	29%	8%	0.8%	68%
AA 3108 American Flight history →	DFW 18:47	DTW 22:36	32%	9%	0.8%	52%
AA 1786 American Flight history →	DFW 15:17	DTW 18:59	33%	8%	0.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON