Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3503 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3503 DFW 07:29 → ECP 09:34 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 813 DFW 19:42 → ECP 21:39 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3503 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:29	ECP 09:34	12%	2%	0.9%	89%
AA 3502 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:16	ECP 16:21	17%	4%	1.0%	56%
AA 5185 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:40	ECP 11:54	21%	8%	2.3%	80%
OH 5105 PSA	DFW 12:22	ECP 14:34	22%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 5187 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 16:05	ECP 18:17	29%	11%	1.4%	55%
AA 813 American Flight history →	DFW 19:42	ECP 21:39	31%	14%	0.8%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON