Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3506 at 12:20 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 3506 DFW 12:20 → ELP 13:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 841 DFW 20:10 → ELP 20:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3506 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:20	ELP 13:08	14%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 1801 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	ELP 09:19	15%	5%	1.0%	82%
AA 3504 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:16	ELP 17:01	19%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 2210 American Flight history →	DFW 10:40	ELP 11:27	20%	7%	1.0%	67%
AA 1802 American Flight history →	DFW 14:49	ELP 15:34	33%	11%	1.2%	44%
AA 2034 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	ELP 19:19	36%	12%	1.4%	59%
AA 1607 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	ELP 23:46	37%	11%	1.4%	54%
AA 841 American Flight history →	DFW 20:10	ELP 20:55	39%	13%	1.3%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON