Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1847 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1847 DFW 06:00 → EWR 10:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 618 DFW 14:25 → EWR 19:04 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1847 United Flight history →	DFW 06:00	EWR 10:29	6%	2%	0.8%	89%
UA 1219 United Flight history →	DFW 07:15	EWR 11:51	7%	3%	0.8%	94%
AA 1820 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	EWR 11:31	13%	3%	0.8%	82%
UA 2454 United Flight history →	DFW 10:32	EWR 15:07	14%	5%	0.8%	83%
F9 2472 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:50	EWR 12:31	16%	6%	0.9%	83%
UA 1574 United Flight history →	DFW 13:00	EWR 17:37	22%	8%	0.8%	78%
UA 1439 United Flight history →	DFW 20:27	EWR 00:59	25%	8%	1.0%	68%
AA 2861 American Flight history →	DFW 11:47	EWR 16:20	29%	8%	1.0%	56%
UA 402 United Flight history →	DFW 16:52	EWR 21:29	30%	11%	0.9%	52%
AA 2999 American Flight history →	DFW 18:19	EWR 22:59	33%	10%	1.3%	55%
AA 618 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	EWR 19:04	39%	13%	1.2%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON