Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 1814 at 13:02, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1814 American Flight history →	DFW 13:02	EYW 16:54	25%	7%	9.6%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Key West is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	7h 03m	100%	82%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:38AA 575	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 10:00 → EYW 12:14AA 1826	6h 14m	96%	76%
American Details →	DFW 05:05 → PHL 09:22AA 2358	1h 08m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → EYW 13:40AA 1898	7h 35m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:17 → ATL 15:35DL 961	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → EYW 19:56DL 2815	6h 39m	98%	75%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55AA 3189	1h 00m Miami	MIA 09:55 → EYW 10:55AA 3515 · flown by Envoy	4h 55m	89%	75%
American Details →	DFW 06:00 → MIA 10:00AA 3055	2h 10m Miami	MIA 12:10 → EYW 13:14AA 3518 · flown by Envoy	6h 14m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168	6h 17m	98%	72%
American Details →	DFW 09:50 → CLT 13:31AA 1857	3h 01m Charlotte	CLT 16:32 → EYW 18:48AA 2533	7h 58m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON