Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1828 at 08:57 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1828 DFW 08:57 → FAT 10:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 3091 DFW 21:59 → FAT 23:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1828 American Flight history →	DFW 08:57	FAT 10:15	16%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 1827 American Flight history →	DFW 12:52	FAT 14:11	27%	10%	0.8%	55%
AA 1223 American Flight history →	DFW 17:21	FAT 18:43	32%	12%	0.9%	55%
AA 2958 American Flight history →	DFW 20:24	FAT 21:43	33%	11%	0.9%	59%
AA 3091 American Flight history →	DFW 21:59	FAT 23:20	33%	12%	0.9%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON