tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Kalispell on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1845 American Flight history → DFW 09:10 FCA 11:43 18% 4% 0.7% 75%
AA 1842 American Flight history → DFW 12:24 FCA 14:57 19% 7% 0.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kalispell on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kalispell is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DFW 06:17 → PHX 06:50AA 1854 2h 54m Phoenix PHX 09:44 → FCA 13:49AA 3852 · flown by Envoy 8h 32m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → FCA 12:43DL 3804 · flown by SkyWest 5h 58m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 12:35 → FCA 14:32DL 2575 8h 37m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798 1h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → FCA 17:29DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → DFW 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 644 3h 47m Denver DEN 13:53 → FCA 16:11UA 2246 8h 26m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38AA 1360 2h 07m Chicago ORD 09:45 → FCA 12:46AA 1833 8h 46m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → ORD 09:42AA 1106 3h 33m Chicago ORD 13:15 → FCA 16:09AA 1844 10h 09m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → DFW 15:34 → MSP 18:03DL 2900 3h 42m Minneapolis MSP 21:45 → FCA 23:43DL 1602 9h 09m 95% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:13 → ORD 18:55UA 2299 52m Chicago ORD 19:47 → FCA 22:55UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest 7h 42m 68% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON