Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1866 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1866 DFW 07:00 → FLL 10:53 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest B6 1882 DFW 16:10 → FLL 20:10 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 25% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1866 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	FLL 10:53	17%	4%	1.3%	80%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	DFW 10:21	FLL 14:14	22%	6%	1.3%	70%
B6 2282 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 07:00	FLL 10:57	23%	7%	1.1%	83%
AA 1862 American Flight history →	DFW 12:45	FLL 16:39	25%	7%	1.8%	55%
AA 2014 American Flight history →	DFW 11:45	FLL 15:36	26%	7%	1.5%	59%
AA 1868 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	FLL 18:19	29%	9%	1.7%	38%
B6 482 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 11:34	FLL 15:30	30%	12%	1.3%	76%
AA 2946 American Flight history →	DFW 18:55	FLL 22:52	33%	12%	5.4%	49%
F9 1974 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:53	FLL 17:55	34%	12%	1.7%	66%
AA 1393 American Flight history →	DFW 20:08	FLL 23:58	36%	10%	4.5%	36%
B6 1882 JetBlue Flight history →	DFW 16:10	FLL 20:10	41%	18%	2.0%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON