Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3167 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3167 DFW 08:53 → GRR 12:24 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 981 DFW 19:40 → GRR 23:09 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3167 American Flight history →	DFW 08:53	GRR 12:24	16%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 310 American Flight history →	DFW 13:03	GRR 16:32	28%	9%	0.8%	62%
AA 981 American Flight history →	DFW 19:40	GRR 23:09	34%	13%	1.1%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON