Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 115 American Flight history →	DFW 09:15	HNL 12:11	25%	8%	0.6%	71%
AA 5 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	HNL 14:26	26%	9%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 00m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	13h 47m	97%	82%
United Details →	DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790	1h 33m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	10h 43m	96%	81%
American Details →	DFW 06:17 → PHX 06:50AA 1854	1h 56m Phoenix	PHX 08:46 → HNL 12:30AA 693	11h 13m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	2h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 34m	96%	79%
American Details →	DFW 11:41 → LAX 12:53AA 2041	3h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 15:55 → HNL 18:41AA 143	12h 00m	98%	78%
United Details →	DFW 11:02 → SFO 12:51UA 1712	3h 54m San Francisco	SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509	13h 23m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:45 → LAX 14:58DL 521	3h 39m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	12h 37m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DFW 13:02 → SEA 15:23AS 415	57m Seattle	SEA 16:20 → HNL 19:16AS 121	11h 14m	74%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON