Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5071 DFW 08:25 → HOU 09:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 3351 DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5071 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 08:25	HOU 09:48	16%	5%	2.8%	67%
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 10:51	HOU 12:16	18%	8%	2.6%	83%
AA 5002 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 14:21	HOU 15:44	21%	8%	1.8%	72%
AA 5465 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 22:38	HOU 23:56	23%	8%	2.6%	50%
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 16:56	HOU 18:19	23%	8%	1.8%	64%
AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:34	HOU 19:53	24%	5%	2.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON