Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3578 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3578 DFW 07:05 → HSV 09:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 3122 DFW 20:36 → HSV 22:25 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3578 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:05	HSV 09:01	12%	2%	1.0%	85%
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:36	HSV 11:32	13%	2%	0.9%	92%
AA 3580 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:12	HSV 15:07	16%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 4278 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:30	HSV 23:26	18%	5%	1.2%	70%
AA 3579 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:10	HSV 19:07	20%	4%	1.1%	66%
AA 5205 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 15:46	HSV 17:48	27%	9%	1.3%	76%
AA 3122 American Flight history →	DFW 20:36	HSV 22:25	28%	9%	1.1%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON