Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2260 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2260 DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1929 DFW 16:51 → IAH 18:08 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2260 United Flight history →	DFW 05:10	IAH 06:22	6%	2%	0.7%	95%
UA 2670 United Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IAH 08:26	12%	4%	0.7%	72%
UA 1586 United Flight history →	DFW 09:46	IAH 11:03	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 539 United Flight history →	DFW 11:59	IAH 13:17	15%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 2114 United Flight history →	DFW 19:34	IAH 20:55	16%	7%	0.6%	84%
AA 3583 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:33	IAH 15:48	19%	4%	0.9%	71%
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:24	IAH 18:46	19%	8%	0.7%	60%
AA 1916 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	IAH 09:47	21%	6%	0.9%	67%
AA 2166 American	DFW 09:44	IAH 10:57	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 4923 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:50	IAH 19:11	22%	10%	1.2%	71%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:01	IAH 17:18	23%	8%	0.6%	67%
AA 3193 American Flight history →	DFW 07:20	IAH 08:32	24%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 1914 American Flight history →	DFW 22:48	IAH 23:58	29%	9%	0.8%	45%
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	30%	10%	0.9%	48%
AA 2512 American Flight history →	DFW 11:58	IAH 13:08	30%	9%	0.8%	41%
AA 1392 American Flight history →	DFW 18:36	IAH 19:54	31%	12%	1.0%	50%
AA 1929 American Flight history →	DFW 16:51	IAH 18:08	34%	13%	1.0%	28%
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DFW 14:15	IAH 15:37	29%	17%	0.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON