Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3789 at 07:43 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 3789 DFW 07:43 → ICT 09:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2863 DFW 20:05 → ICT 21:22 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:43	ICT 09:06	10%	2%	0.9%	95%
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	ICT 10:55	11%	2%	0.9%	83%
AA 3592 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:28	ICT 13:52	14%	3%	0.9%	76%
MQ 3432 Envoy	DFW 22:30	ICT 23:51	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 3593 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:27	ICT 15:51	18%	3%	0.9%	69%
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:07	ICT 18:30	19%	4%	1.1%	67%
AA 2863 American Flight history →	DFW 20:05	ICT 21:22	43%	12%	1.0%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON