Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2934 at 12:05 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2934 American Flight history →	DFW 12:05	ILM 15:54	26%	7%	1.0%	67%
AA 1841 American Flight history →	DFW 20:10	ILM 23:57	38%	10%	0.9%	42%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	7h 23m	100%	91%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38AA 1360	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → ILM 12:51AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	6h 51m	98%	86%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:38AA 575	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → ILM 12:33AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont	6h 33m	99%	86%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → ILM 14:19AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont	6h 19m	99%	84%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → ORD 09:42AA 1106	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → ILM 15:01AA 4009 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	6h 57m	99%	82%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 11:34 → ILM 15:00UA 5932 · flown by SkyWest	6h 52m	98%	82%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618	3h 56m Washington	DCA 12:59 → ILM 14:32AA 5237 · flown by PSA	8h 30m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	48m Charlotte	CLT 16:24 → ILM 17:41AA 6116 · flown by Piedmont	4h 46m	74%	52%
American Details →	DFW 16:07 → PHL 20:50AA 2973	1h 05m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → ILM 23:45AA 6083 · flown by Piedmont	6h 38m	74%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON