Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1948 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1948 DFW 07:00 → IND 10:12 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 766 DFW 20:44 → IND 23:58 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1948 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	IND 10:12	13%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 1955 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	IND 12:42	19%	5%	0.7%	79%
AA 1956 American Flight history →	DFW 13:14	IND 16:27	25%	9%	0.7%	59%
F9 3202 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:57	IND 21:15	30%	10%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
AA 2800 American Flight history →	DFW 19:09	IND 22:23	31%	10%	0.8%	51%
AA 1945 American Flight history →	DFW 16:11	IND 19:24	31%	11%	0.8%	46%
AA 766 American Flight history →	DFW 20:44	IND 23:58	31%	9%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON