Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1975 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1975 DFW 07:10 → JAX 10:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2263 DFW 18:52 → JAX 22:24 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1975 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	JAX 10:37	13%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 1998 American Flight history →	DFW 10:01	JAX 13:28	20%	6%	0.9%	60%
AA 1980 American Flight history →	DFW 15:20	JAX 18:49	28%	11%	1.6%	55%
AA 2449 American Flight history →	DFW 17:45	JAX 21:16	29%	11%	2.1%	58%
AA 2506 American Flight history →	DFW 20:16	JAX 23:41	29%	10%	2.1%	40%
AA 2263 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	JAX 22:24	30%	12%	2.0%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON