Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 454 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day DL 454 DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 578 DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	8%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	17%	5%	0.7%	75%
AA 481 American Flight history →	DFW 11:46	JFK 16:30	19%	7%	0.7%	50%
AA 1049 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	JFK 17:56	22%	8%	0.8%	58%
AA 1203 American Flight history →	DFW 17:39	JFK 22:30	28%	10%	0.8%	46%
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	28%	11%	0.7%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	5h 35m	94%	81%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:38AA 575	49m Charlotte	CLT 09:27 → JFK 11:29AA 374	5h 29m	90%	79%
American Details →	DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624	55m Washington	DCA 14:54 → JFK 16:29AA 4781 · flown by Republic	5h 32m	82%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON