Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1969 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1969 DFW 07:00 → LAS 07:51 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1797 DFW 20:54 → LAS 21:45 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1969 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LAS 07:51	15%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 1584 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LAS 09:16	17%	4%	0.9%	85%
F9 1051 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 12:02	LAS 13:00	24%	9%	0.9%	86%
AA 777 American Flight history →	DFW 12:18	LAS 13:06	28%	8%	0.9%	75%
AA 3285 American Flight history →	DFW 11:06	LAS 11:54	30%	8%	0.9%	65%
AA 2376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	LAS 14:28	31%	10%	0.9%	54%
F9 3885 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:51	LAS 23:47	33%	13%	1.2%	73%
AA 2864 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	LAS 17:48	34%	15%	1.0%	61%
AA 884 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LAS 18:42	34%	15%	1.0%	56%
AA 2872 American Flight history →	DFW 21:34	LAS 22:25	35%	12%	1.1%	43%
AA 1771 American Flight history →	DFW 19:22	LAS 20:11	36%	14%	1.0%	59%
F9 1647 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:35	LAS 21:31	36%	16%	1.2%	60%
AA 2998 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	LAS 23:48	36%	11%	1.0%	52%
AA 1797 American Flight history →	DFW 20:54	LAS 21:45	36%	12%	1.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON