Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 439 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 439 DFW 07:35 → LAX 08:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1084 DFW 20:49 → LAX 22:03 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 439 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:35	LAX 08:45	10%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 2005 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	LAX 07:13	11%	3%	1.0%	82%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:45	LAX 14:58	13%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 1154 American Flight history →	DFW 07:20	LAX 08:35	16%	4%	1.1%	76%
F9 2273 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:35	LAX 08:54	17%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 1996 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	LAX 09:49	17%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 500 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	LAX 10:52	18%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 2827 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	LAX 11:57	19%	5%	0.9%	73%
AA 2041 American Flight history →	DFW 11:41	LAX 12:53	21%	5%	0.8%	76%
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	DFW 20:35	LAX 21:50	22%	5%	0.8%	86%
AA 3334 American Flight history →	DFW 13:11	LAX 14:20	23%	5%	0.9%	75%
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:08	LAX 17:30	25%	9%	0.8%	76%
AA 2732 American Flight history →	DFW 15:30	LAX 16:39	28%	9%	0.9%	45%
AA 966 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	LAX 17:45	28%	9%	0.9%	67%
AA 1972 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	LAX 18:44	31%	9%	0.9%	53%
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 22:31	LAX 23:45	34%	7%	0.9%	61%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	LAX 19:45	34%	9%	0.9%	56%
AA 3287 American Flight history →	DFW 21:36	LAX 22:49	35%	8%	1.0%	43%
AA 1084 American Flight history →	DFW 20:49	LAX 22:03	36%	8%	0.9%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON