Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3096 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 3096 DFW 06:00 → LGA 10:30 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 3424 DFW 17:18 → LGA 22:00 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3096 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	LGA 10:30	10%	2%	1.1%	84%
DL 551 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LGA 11:29	11%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 10:35	LGA 15:10	15%	5%	0.9%	76%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	DFW 07:40	LGA 12:13	16%	3%	1.1%	83%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	LGA 13:00	16%	5%	1.1%	75%
AA 3053 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	LGA 13:59	21%	6%	1.0%	59%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:15	LGA 17:53	23%	7%	1.0%	64%
AA 3088 American Flight history →	DFW 10:30	LGA 15:03	23%	7%	1.0%	53%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:59	LGA 23:33	26%	9%	1.5%	59%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	DFW 16:10	LGA 20:51	27%	11%	1.0%	69%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	LGA 16:02	27%	9%	1.0%	52%
AA 2388 American Flight history →	DFW 12:30	LGA 17:05	29%	8%	1.0%	42%
AA 2708 American Flight history →	DFW 19:13	LGA 23:45	32%	9%	1.4%	55%
AA 1535 American Flight history →	DFW 13:54	LGA 18:28	33%	10%	1.2%	58%
AA 610 American Flight history →	DFW 14:48	LGA 19:22	34%	12%	1.3%	54%
AA 2513 American Flight history →	DFW 16:49	LGA 21:29	37%	13%	1.3%	56%
AA 2028 American Flight history →	DFW 15:56	LGA 20:30	38%	15%	1.3%	40%
AA 1329 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LGA 22:30	38%	14%	1.3%	42%
F9 3424 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:18	LGA 22:00	42%	16%	1.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON