Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3628 DFW 07:12 → LIT 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 4079 DFW 21:11 → LIT 22:35 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3628 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:12	LIT 08:35	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 3632 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:41	LIT 11:03	11%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 3636 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:56	LIT 13:18	12%	2%	0.7%	82%
AA 4008 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:43	LIT 17:05	16%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 3362 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:04	LIT 23:23	17%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 3635 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:01	LIT 18:23	17%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 3881 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:38	LIT 21:01	17%	4%	0.8%	63%
AA 4079 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:11	LIT 22:35	17%	3%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON