Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3651 at 09:57 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 3651 DFW 09:57 → MAF 11:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 5168 DFW 22:35 → MAF 23:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3651 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:57	MAF 11:15	10%	2%	2.0%	90%
AA 3652 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:32	MAF 13:49	11%	2%	2.1%	83%
AA 5013 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:25	MAF 08:50	13%	4%	1.3%	81%
AA 4116 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:35	MAF 22:53	14%	4%	2.3%	72%
AA 3653 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:36	MAF 16:53	15%	3%	1.8%	80%
AA 3541 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MAF 21:53	16%	4%	2.1%	77%
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 16:47	MAF 18:10	18%	8%	1.5%	68%
AA 3657 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:35	MAF 19:50	19%	5%	2.9%	68%
AA 5168 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 22:35	MAF 23:59	21%	8%	2.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON