Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3661 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3661 DFW 10:00 → MCI 11:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 922 DFW 15:50 → MCI 17:27 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3661 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:00	MCI 11:44	9%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 2050 American Flight history →	DFW 07:18	MCI 08:56	12%	3%	0.8%	66%
AA 602 American Flight history →	DFW 08:56	MCI 10:34	15%	3%	0.8%	79%
AA 6238 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 12:12	MCI 13:58	18%	6%	0.9%	73%
AA 2047 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	MCI 19:01	26%	9%	0.9%	52%
AA 1036 American Flight history →	DFW 22:44	MCI 00:23	27%	7%	1.1%	53%
AA 2267 American Flight history →	DFW 20:19	MCI 21:57	31%	9%	1.0%	56%
AA 922 American Flight history →	DFW 15:50	MCI 17:27	31%	10%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON