Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3173 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3173 DFW 06:15 → MCO 09:50 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2791 DFW 16:33 → MCO 20:25 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3173 American Flight history →	DFW 06:15	MCO 09:50	12%	3%	9.3%	83%
AA 2119 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	MCO 10:49	14%	4%	15.7%	78%
F9 1482 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:28	MCO 12:28	16%	5%	17.4%	81%
AA 2081 American Flight history →	DFW 09:47	MCO 13:31	20%	5%	16.7%	69%
F9 4018 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:49	MCO 15:48	21%	9%	16.9%	76%
AA 1312 American Flight history →	DFW 10:55	MCO 14:37	25%	7%	17.7%	59%
AA 2097 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	MCO 15:44	26%	9%	16.8%	41%
AA 1288 American Flight history →	DFW 13:06	MCO 16:57	29%	8%	15.7%	60%
F9 2886 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:20	MCO 00:14	29%	14%	17.7%	67%
AA 1336 American Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MCO 00:21	32%	11%	17.7%	52%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 19:40	MCO 23:24	33%	12%	17.1%	22%
AA 2117 American Flight history →	DFW 14:40	MCO 18:31	34%	12%	16.9%	56%
AA 2186 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	MCO 22:20	34%	12%	17.7%	46%
AA 2974 American Flight history →	DFW 17:18	MCO 21:10	34%	12%	16.0%	51%
AA 2791 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	MCO 20:25	34%	14%	17.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON