tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2469 at 18:48, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2469 American Flight history → DFW 18:48 MDT 22:59 38% 12% 0.8% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Harrisburg is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 29m Detroit DTW 10:33 → MDT 12:03DL 4065 · flown by SkyWest 5h 43m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → MDT 14:10DL 2517 7h 50m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:05 → PHL 09:22AA 2358 3h 33m Philadelphia PHL 12:55 → MDT 14:00AA 5963 · flown by Piedmont 7h 55m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639 1h 19m Dulles IAD 12:45 → MDT 13:50UA 4372 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 30m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 6h 31m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → DFW 15:30 → ORD 18:16AA 2740 3h 02m Chicago ORD 21:18 → MDT 00:22 +1AA 4640 · flown by Republic 7h 52m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 13:12 → MDT 15:00AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont 7h 00m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → DFW 09:45 → ORD 12:26UA 1114 1h 31m Chicago ORD 13:57 → MDT 16:56UA 1746 6h 11m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:07 → PHL 20:50AA 2973 1h 05m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → MDT 23:10AA 5944 · flown by Piedmont 6h 03m 74% 55%
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:34 → ORD 20:29AA 1893 49m Chicago ORD 21:18 → MDT 00:22 +1AA 4640 · flown by Republic 5h 48m 66% 55%
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:25 → PHL 18:52AA 1100 53m Philadelphia PHL 19:45 → MDT 21:03AA 6109 · flown by Piedmont 5h 35m 65% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON