tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, F9 2882 at 15:01, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
F9 2882 Frontier Flight history → DFW 15:01 MDW 17:22 31% 11% 0.8% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 36m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 6h 09m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 3h 21m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 7h 26m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:51 → ATL 20:19DL 2143 56m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 5h 24m 81% 64%
DeltaDetails → DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972 2h 54m Minneapolis MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor 7h 01m 98% 58%
DeltaDetails → DFW 11:19 → DTW 15:02DL 2746 3h 05m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 7h 10m 98% 58%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276 2h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 6h 14m 97% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
FrontierDetails → DFW 16:16 → ATL 19:50F9 2496 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → MDW 22:03F9 2291 5h 47m 67% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON