Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3676 at 12:37 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3676 DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1646 DFW 22:31 → MEM 00:04 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3676 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:37	MEM 14:16	14%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	DFW 07:15	MEM 08:47	16%	3%	0.7%	72%
AA 3678 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:10	MEM 16:49	17%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 3677 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:21	MEM 18:00	19%	5%	0.9%	59%
AA 1935 American Flight history →	DFW 09:39	MEM 11:11	21%	4%	0.7%	64%
AA 3262 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	MEM 21:27	34%	10%	0.9%	44%
AA 1646 American Flight history →	DFW 22:31	MEM 00:04	34%	8%	1.1%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON