Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3189 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 3189 DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1167 DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3189 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	MIA 08:55	11%	3%	1.2%	84%
AA 3055 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	MIA 10:00	15%	3%	1.3%	81%
AA 3290 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	MIA 11:11	20%	3%	1.4%	82%
AA 2762 American Flight history →	DFW 09:31	MIA 13:29	28%	5%	2.6%	70%
F9 2676 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 09:43	MIA 13:49	32%	8%	2.2%	70%
AA 899 American Flight history →	DFW 10:32	MIA 14:30	32%	7%	2.8%	55%
AA 2823 American Flight history →	DFW 20:05	MIA 23:56	33%	11%	2.0%	41%
AA 1824 American Flight history →	DFW 19:12	MIA 22:59	33%	11%	1.9%	69%
AA 3117 American Flight history →	DFW 12:45	MIA 16:43	34%	8%	1.6%	51%
AA 3308 American Flight history →	DFW 16:30	MIA 20:35	37%	11%	2.2%	56%
AA 2206 American Flight history →	DFW 18:10	MIA 22:05	38%	11%	1.9%	56%
AA 3083 American Flight history →	DFW 15:39	MIA 19:40	38%	12%	2.0%	46%
AA 1167 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	MIA 18:24	39%	11%	1.5%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON