Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:14, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching Monterey on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2140 American Flight history →	DFW 10:15	MRY 11:50	19%	6%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 06:17 → PHX 06:50AA 1854	3h 14m Phoenix	PHX 10:04 → MRY 12:05AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	7h 48m	100%	82%
United Details →	DFW 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 644	1h 09m Denver	DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	94%	75%
American Details →	DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990	2h 24m Phoenix	PHX 13:43 → MRY 15:38AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	98%	74%
American Details →	DFW 16:37 → PHX 17:09AA 1155	3h 28m Phoenix	PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest	7h 56m	98%	73%
American Details →	DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:08AA 2113	2h 28m Phoenix	PHX 16:36 → MRY 18:28AA 2884	6h 48m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	DFW 19:24 → SAN 20:29AS 780	1h 57m San Diego	SAN 22:26 → MRY 23:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	88%	67%
United Details →	DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790	2h 18m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → MRY 11:10UA 5479 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	98%	67%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	1h 10m Denver	DEN 19:30 → MRY 21:10UA 1371	6h 20m	79%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 19:14 → PHX 19:43AA 818	54m Phoenix	PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest	5h 19m	69%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON