Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1276 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1276 DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2978 DFW 20:04 → MSP 22:26 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1276 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:55	MSP 09:23	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2972 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:16	MSP 13:44	12%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 2152 American Flight history →	DFW 07:17	MSP 09:41	13%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 2900 Delta Flight history →	DFW 15:34	MSP 18:03	19%	5%	0.7%	80%
DL 2873 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:31	MSP 21:00	22%	6%	0.7%	55%
AA 2145 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	MSP 14:19	23%	6%	0.7%	48%
F9 3224 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:41	MSP 16:08	25%	8%	0.8%	77%
AA 3149 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	MSP 23:57	26%	7%	0.8%	44%
AA 2148 American Flight history →	DFW 15:59	MSP 18:23	27%	11%	0.7%	52%
AA 2806 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	MSP 21:21	28%	10%	0.8%	58%
AA 2978 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	MSP 22:26	29%	8%	0.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON