Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2183 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2183 DFW 07:01 → MSY 08:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1455 DFW 20:00 → MSY 21:29 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2183 American Flight history →	DFW 07:01	MSY 08:30	14%	4%	1.2%	80%
MQ 3591 Envoy	DFW 09:00	MSY 10:34	14%	2%	1.3%	no record
AA 3721 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:38	MSY 14:12	16%	3%	1.5%	78%
AA 2885 American Flight history →	DFW 10:00	MSY 11:30	22%	5%	1.1%	69%
F9 4994 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:51	MSY 13:29	26%	7%	1.1%	72%
AA 2158 American Flight history →	DFW 17:26	MSY 19:03	32%	10%	3.8%	42%
AA 2194 American Flight history →	DFW 15:39	MSY 17:07	33%	10%	1.8%	39%
AA 1472 American Flight history →	DFW 22:30	MSY 23:58	34%	11%	4.6%	46%
AA 1455 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	MSY 21:29	35%	11%	6.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON