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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 06:17, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 123 American Flight history → DFW 11:20 OGG 14:10 26% 10% 0.7% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 5 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DFW 06:17 → PHX 06:50AA 1854 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → OGG 12:06AA 847 10h 49m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 3h 29m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 12h 24m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DFW 11:02 → SFO 12:51UA 1712 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 13h 15m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → DFW 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 644 1h 54m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 11h 20m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → DFW 06:00 → LAX 07:13AA 2005 1h 51m Los Angeles LAX 09:04 → OGG 11:44AA 271 10h 44m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → DFW 15:21 → SFO 17:13UA 454 1h 57m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → OGG 21:44UA 1124 11h 23m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → DFW 13:45 → LAX 14:58DL 521 1h 57m Los Angeles LAX 16:55 → OGG 19:34DL 418 10h 49m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790 2h 18m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 11h 34m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:30 → LAX 17:45AA 966 1h 00m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → OGG 21:24AA 205 9h 54m 72% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON