Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3731 at 10:49 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3731 DFW 10:49 → OKC 11:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1458 DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3731 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:49	OKC 11:56	11%	3%	0.9%	84%
AA 3805 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:30	OKC 10:37	11%	3%	0.9%	93%
AA 6206 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:15	OKC 08:29	12%	5%	0.6%	90%
AA 3730 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:04	OKC 16:08	17%	5%	0.9%	71%
AA 5362 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 13:20	OKC 14:34	20%	9%	1.1%	62%
AA 3729 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:40	OKC 18:45	20%	6%	1.0%	73%
AA 3533 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:20	OKC 17:25	20%	6%	1.0%	81%
AA 3727 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:34	OKC 19:39	21%	7%	1.2%	72%
AA 2734 American Flight history →	DFW 22:55	OKC 23:59	32%	10%	0.8%	47%
AA 1458 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	OKC 22:33	33%	12%	0.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON