Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2899 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2899 DFW 07:10 → OMA 09:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2628 DFW 21:30 → OMA 23:22 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2899 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	OMA 09:00	15%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 2226 American Flight history →	DFW 09:35	OMA 11:25	20%	4%	0.7%	80%
AA 2229 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	OMA 16:18	26%	8%	0.7%	54%
AA 2232 American Flight history →	DFW 17:06	OMA 18:59	28%	9%	0.7%	46%
AA 2628 American Flight history →	DFW 21:30	OMA 23:22	29%	8%	0.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON