Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2238 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2238 DFW 08:20 → ONT 09:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1534 DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2238 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	ONT 09:29	15%	3%	0.8%	90%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:31	ONT 08:37	20%	5%	0.8%	79%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	DFW 10:40	ONT 11:45	22%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 2239 American Flight history →	DFW 12:20	ONT 13:22	24%	7%	0.8%	58%
AA 2236 American Flight history →	DFW 18:50	ONT 19:59	30%	9%	0.9%	62%
AA 711 American Flight history →	DFW 21:27	ONT 22:32	31%	9%	0.8%	53%
AA 1534 American Flight history →	DFW 22:52	ONT 23:59	33%	9%	0.8%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON