Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1360 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 1360 DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1893 DFW 17:34 → ORD 20:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1360 American Flight history →	DFW 05:00	ORD 07:38	6%	3%	0.9%	80%
UA 1695 United Flight history →	DFW 07:08	ORD 09:50	9%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 1114 United Flight history →	DFW 09:45	ORD 12:26	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 3075 American Flight history →	DFW 06:00	ORD 08:39	10%	3%	0.9%	80%
AA 1106 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	ORD 09:42	11%	5%	0.9%	74%
UA 1401 United Flight history →	DFW 12:00	ORD 14:42	13%	5%	0.7%	74%
AA 1059 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	ORD 11:10	13%	5%	1.0%	83%
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 09:35	ORD 12:14	16%	6%	1.0%	69%
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	18%	6%	0.7%	68%
AA 3330 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	ORD 13:25	19%	6%	0.9%	63%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:57	21%	6%	0.7%	63%
AA 3531 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:28	ORD 22:15	22%	6%	1.7%	64%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	23%	7%	0.9%	66%
AA 2346 American Flight history →	DFW 21:00	ORD 23:39	23%	8%	1.1%	63%
AA 1193 American Flight history →	DFW 22:12	ORD 00:50	23%	7%	1.3%	55%
UA 2299 United Flight history →	DFW 16:13	ORD 18:55	23%	7%	0.7%	57%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	25%	7%	0.7%	60%
AA 2474 American Flight history →	DFW 16:50	ORD 19:44	27%	10%	0.9%	55%
F9 1342 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:25	ORD 16:08	28%	10%	1.3%	75%
AA 2740 American Flight history →	DFW 15:30	ORD 18:16	30%	10%	0.9%	50%
AA 1424 American Flight history →	DFW 18:38	ORD 21:22	31%	10%	1.0%	39%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DFW 17:34	ORD 20:29	31%	10%	1.0%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON