Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2262 at 10:21 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2262 DFW 10:21 → ORF 14:22 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 2587 DFW 19:34 → ORF 23:38 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2262 American Flight history →	DFW 10:21	ORF 14:22	19%	6%	0.9%	71%
AA 2265 American Flight history →	DFW 13:58	ORF 18:00	28%	9%	0.9%	42%
AA 2587 American Flight history →	DFW 19:34	ORF 23:38	29%	9%	1.0%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON