Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2276 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2276 DFW 09:30 → PBI 13:21 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 2282 DFW 13:29 → PBI 17:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2276 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	PBI 13:21	22%	6%	2.3%	72%
AA 2467 American Flight history →	DFW 18:50	PBI 22:48	31%	11%	3.1%	61%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	DFW 13:29	PBI 17:19	33%	10%	6.3%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON