Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 646 at 17:45 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day AS 646 DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2283 DFW 20:49 → PDX 22:51 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 646 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 17:45	PDX 19:49	15%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 2286 American Flight history →	DFW 10:40	PDX 12:40	20%	5%	0.8%	62%
AA 2287 American Flight history →	DFW 09:01	PDX 11:01	21%	3%	0.8%	76%
AA 685 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	PDX 18:41	27%	8%	0.8%	53%
AA 2620 American Flight history →	DFW 22:54	PDX 00:55	29%	7%	1.0%	44%
AA 2298 American Flight history →	DFW 19:29	PDX 21:29	30%	8%	0.9%	53%
AA 2283 American Flight history →	DFW 20:49	PDX 22:51	33%	7%	0.8%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 14:31 → SLC 16:18DL 2800	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	5h 47m	84%	72%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	5h 39m	84%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON