Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2358 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2358 DFW 05:05 → PHL 09:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2970 DFW 15:00 → PHL 19:29 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2358 American Flight history →	DFW 05:05	PHL 09:22	8%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 415 American Flight history →	DFW 07:30	PHL 11:52	12%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	PHL 13:02	14%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 402 American Flight history →	DFW 09:38	PHL 14:00	21%	5%	0.8%	74%
AA 2947 American Flight history →	DFW 12:14	PHL 16:37	25%	8%	0.8%	60%
AA 1100 American Flight history →	DFW 14:25	PHL 18:52	30%	10%	0.8%	62%
AA 991 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	PHL 22:17	30%	12%	0.9%	52%
AA 2973 American Flight history →	DFW 16:07	PHL 20:50	31%	11%	0.8%	62%
AA 3242 American Flight history →	DFW 18:35	PHL 22:57	33%	12%	1.0%	47%
AA 2542 American Flight history →	DFW 20:19	PHL 00:35	34%	9%	1.0%	56%
F9 2970 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:00	PHL 19:29	36%	17%	1.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON