Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1854 at 06:17 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1854 DFW 06:17 → PHX 06:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest F9 4655 DFW 22:23 → PHX 22:59 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1854 American Flight history →	DFW 06:17	PHX 06:50	9%	3%	0.8%	100%
AA 474 American Flight history →	DFW 07:08	PHX 07:34	14%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 520 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	PHX 09:29	17%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 2990 American Flight history →	DFW 10:50	PHX 11:19	17%	5%	0.8%	85%
AA 1685 American Flight history →	DFW 12:33	PHX 13:00	22%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 2113 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	PHX 14:08	25%	7%	0.7%	67%
AA 554 American Flight history →	DFW 15:34	PHX 15:59	26%	8%	0.8%	76%
AA 1155 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	PHX 17:09	27%	9%	0.8%	66%
F9 3971 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:54	PHX 12:26	27%	7%	0.9%	81%
AA 2108 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	PHX 14:57	27%	8%	0.8%	60%
AA 818 American Flight history →	DFW 19:14	PHX 19:43	30%	9%	1.1%	50%
AA 3239 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	PHX 22:00	30%	9%	1.4%	61%
AA 2319 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	PHX 23:28	31%	8%	1.2%	37%
AA 1648 American Flight history →	DFW 17:55	PHX 18:27	31%	10%	1.0%	53%
AA 1133 American Flight history →	DFW 20:30	PHX 21:02	32%	9%	1.2%	64%
F9 4655 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:23	PHX 22:59	36%	12%	1.3%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON