Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2290 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2290 DFW 07:00 → PIT 10:47 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1761 DFW 20:08 → PIT 23:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2290 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	PIT 10:47	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 2311 American Flight history →	DFW 10:33	PIT 14:19	17%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 2307 American Flight history →	DFW 14:57	PIT 18:43	24%	9%	0.7%	69%
AA 680 American Flight history →	DFW 17:55	PIT 21:48	27%	9%	0.7%	55%
AA 1761 American Flight history →	DFW 20:08	PIT 23:54	28%	9%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON