Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3748 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3748 DFW 07:00 → PNS 08:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 2314 DFW 16:22 → PNS 18:13 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3748 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:00	PNS 08:57	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 5353 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 11:24	PNS 13:25	20%	9%	1.4%	63%
AA 2950 American Flight history →	DFW 09:30	PNS 11:19	22%	7%	0.8%	60%
AA 5510 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 20:22	PNS 22:22	24%	14%	1.9%	50%
AA 5355 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:56	PNS 16:57	25%	11%	1.5%	74%
AA 2320 American Flight history →	DFW 12:53	PNS 14:42	26%	9%	0.8%	51%
AA 2314 American Flight history →	DFW 16:22	PNS 18:13	29%	11%	0.8%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON