tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2353 American Flight history → DFW 11:55 PWM 16:41 23% 6% 0.7% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639 1h 19m Dulles IAD 12:45 → PWM 14:34UA 3535 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → DFW 06:00 → EWR 10:29UA 1847 1h 30m Newark EWR 11:59 → PWM 13:25UA 3685 · flown by Republic 6h 25m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479 6h 40m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:05 → PHL 09:22AA 2358 3h 23m Philadelphia PHL 12:45 → PWM 14:16AA 2354 8h 11m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 3h 01m Denver DEN 09:54 → PWM 15:49UA 1598 9h 04m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 56m Detroit DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426 5h 35m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → DFW 10:32 → EWR 15:07UA 2454 1h 52m Newark EWR 16:59 → PWM 18:29UA 3599 · flown by Republic 6h 57m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → DFW 09:35 → ORD 12:14AA 1290 3h 04m Chicago ORD 15:18 → PWM 18:52AA 4774 · flown by Republic 8h 17m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240 46m Dulles IAD 22:10 → PWM 23:51UA 2064 5h 36m 67% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON