Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2366 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2366 DFW 07:00 → RDU 10:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 542 DFW 20:04 → RDU 23:48 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2366 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	RDU 10:46	15%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 2400 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	RDU 13:27	21%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 2371 American Flight history →	DFW 12:12	RDU 15:59	24%	7%	0.8%	61%
AA 2361 American Flight history →	DFW 14:50	RDU 18:38	33%	9%	0.8%	50%
AA 979 American Flight history →	DFW 17:43	RDU 21:34	34%	10%	0.8%	62%
AA 542 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	RDU 23:48	35%	10%	0.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON