Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2413 at 10:29 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2413 DFW 10:29 → RIC 14:24 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 3037 DFW 18:55 → RIC 22:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2413 American Flight history →	DFW 10:29	RIC 14:24	19%	5%	0.8%	67%
AA 2416 American Flight history →	DFW 14:40	RIC 18:36	27%	8%	0.8%	51%
AA 3037 American Flight history →	DFW 18:55	RIC 22:57	30%	8%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON