Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2428 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2428 DFW 07:15 → RSW 10:57 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 2446 DFW 13:34 → RSW 17:16 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2428 American Flight history →	DFW 07:15	RSW 10:57	18%	4%	16.5%	67%
AA 2438 American Flight history →	DFW 09:49	RSW 13:31	23%	7%	12.9%	71%
AA 1267 American Flight history →	DFW 18:51	RSW 22:38	31%	11%	11.9%	57%
AA 2446 American Flight history →	DFW 13:34	RSW 17:16	34%	9%	14.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON